1. Margins for health systems improved in 2023 after a disastrous 2022. At the end of 2022, it looked like we would see massive health system failures. Systems rebounded in 2023 far better than many of us expected. The median hospital margin was -0.5% in January 2023 and 2.3% by year's end, according to Kaufman Hall. [Becker's Healthcare Review]

There is still much variation between systems' 2023 results, with Mayo Clinic reporting a 6% operating margin for example and Cleveland Clinic at 0.4% or Kaiser Permanente at 0.3%. It should be noted that while systems improved overall through 2023, the median margin is still too thin for comfort and 40% of U.S. hospitals continue to lose money from operations, with more than a dozen hospitals and health systems closing or filing for bankruptcy or otherwise reducing services in the last year.

2. The physician shortage in primary care and specialties is getting worse. The Association of American Medical Colleges issued a forecast in 2019 that the U.S. will face a shortage of up to 124,000 physicians by 2033. Numerous data points, albeit delayed, can paint a picture of how we are trending in the trajectory toward that end date, although more data — such as a national estimate of annual physician turnover — would certainly help the cause. 

More>