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COVID-19 deaths to increase in next month: 3 forecasts to know

23 May 2022 12:26 PM | Deborah Hodges (Administrator)

COVID-19 deaths are decreasing nationwide in the wake of this winter's omicron surge, but CDC modeling suggests this trend may change over the next four weeks. 

Three COVID-19 forecasts to know:  [Beckers 5.23.2022]

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 92.2 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 93,401 cases on May 21 to 179,547 by June 4. During the omicron surge, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 33.3 cases per 100,000 population to 54.7 per 100,000 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to increase over the next four weeks, with 1,300 to 11,000 new admissions likely reported June 10, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 18 modeling groups.

Hospitalizations are increasing, but the nation's current seven-day average (3,250) is still far lower than the more than 20,000 new admissions seen at the height of the omicron surge, according to data tracked by the Times.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths are also expected to increase over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 22 modeling groups. The forecast projects 2,000 to 5,300 deaths likely reported in the week ending June 11, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 1,008,000 to 1,018,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list.

To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click hereBecker's pulled the forecast values May 23 at 9:10 a.m. CDT.


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