Half of all states and nearly three quarters of all counties experienced more deaths than births in their populations between July 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today.

Natural change is a measure of the relationship between births and deaths.

Natural increase happens when there are more births than deaths. Natural decrease means there were more people dying than babies born in a particular population.

Areas with large aging populations often experience natural decrease and shrinking populations in the absence of migration. 

Although more stats experienced natural decrease in 2021, patterns at the state level may mask trends in lower levels of geography.

While widespread, natural decrease was more common in some regions in 2021:

• Seven out of nine states (78%) in the Northeast had more deaths than births, making this the region with the most widespread natural decrease in 2021.
• The West had the lowest share of states with natural decrease — three out of 13 (23%).
• More states in the South had natural decrease than increase (65%); the reverse was true in the Midwest, where 33% of states had more deaths than births.

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